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Panthères vs Espoir Savalou — Championnat National 2019

Panthères
Panthères
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Espoir Savalou
Espoir Savalou
4/20/2025Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Group A - 27Football Stadium Nikki

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Panthères40%
×Draw32%
Espoir Savalou29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Panthères
1.05
Espoir Savalou
0.84

Panthères creates 25% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 101 away

creates per match

Panthères
1.07
Espoir Savalou
0.89

allows per match

Panthères
0.80
Espoir Savalou
1.03

finishing

Panthères+0.00on par
Espoir Savalou+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panthères ↓

Espoir Savalou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Panthères or draw
71%
Panthères or Espoir Savalou
68%
Draw or Espoir Savalou
60%

Winning margin

Panthères wins by 2+
16%
Espoir Savalou wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Panthères 1+ goals
65%
Panthères 2+ goals
28%
Panthères 3+ goals
9%
Espoir Savalou 1+ goals
57%
Espoir Savalou 2+ goals
21%
Espoir Savalou 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Panthères (draw refunded)
58%
Espoir Savalou (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panthères at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.80 · 86 matches

Espoir Savalou away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.03 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panthères attack 1.07 + Espoir Savalou defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.05

Espoir Savalou attack 0.89 + Panthères defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Panthères scores more
40%
level
32%
Espoir Savalou scores more
29%

Panthères at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Panthères will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Panthères vs Espoir Savalou

Panthères and Espoir Savalou drew 0-0 in Championnat National on April 20, 2025.

The match was played at Football Stadium Nikki in Nikki.