Panthères 1–0 Dragons: Result & Stats

Panthères

FT

1 – 0

Dragons

12/9/2018

Championnat National · Round 6Stade Municipal de Djougou (Djougou)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Panthères41%

×Draw32%

Dragons27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PanthèresExpected goals in this matchDragons

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

0.80

Panthères

1.05

Dragons

0.80

Panthères creates 31% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 119 away

1.08

creates per match

0.81

0.78

allows per match

1.02

creates per match

Panthères

1.08

Dragons

0.81

allows per match

Panthères

0.78

Dragons

1.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Panthères+0.00on par

Dragons+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panthères ↓

Dragons →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Panthères or draw

73%

Panthères or Dragons

68%

Draw or Dragons

59%

Winning margin

Panthères wins by 2+

16%

Dragons wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Panthères 1+ goals

65%

Panthères 2+ goals

28%

Panthères 3+ goals

9%

Dragons 1+ goals

55%

Dragons 2+ goals

19%

Dragons 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Panthères (draw refunded)

60%

Dragons (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panthères at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.78 · 93 matches

Dragons away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.02 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panthères attack 1.08 + Dragons defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.05

Dragons attack 0.81 + Panthères defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Panthères scores more

41%

level

32%

Dragons scores more

27%

Panthères at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Panthères will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff