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Panthères vs Damissa — Championnat National 2019

Panthères
Panthères
FT
1 – 1
Damissa
Damissa
5/4/2025Championnat NationalChampionnat National · Group A - 29Stade Djougou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Panthères37%
×Draw32%
Damissa31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Panthères
0.97
Damissa
0.86

Panthères creates 13% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 107 away

creates per match

Panthères
1.07
Damissa
0.93

allows per match

Panthères
0.80
Damissa
0.86

finishing

Panthères+0.00on par
Damissa+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panthères ↓

Damissa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Panthères or draw
69%
Panthères or Damissa
68%
Draw or Damissa
63%

Winning margin

Panthères wins by 2+
14%
Damissa wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Panthères 1+ goals
62%
Panthères 2+ goals
25%
Panthères 3+ goals
7%
Damissa 1+ goals
58%
Damissa 2+ goals
21%
Damissa 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Panthères (draw refunded)
54%
Damissa (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panthères at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.80 · 86 matches

Damissa away — creates 0.93, concedes 0.86 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panthères attack 1.07 + Damissa defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.97

Damissa attack 0.93 + Panthères defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Panthères scores more
37%
level
32%
Damissa scores more
31%

Panthères at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Panthères will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championnat National: Panthères 1–1 Damissa

Panthères and Damissa drew 1-1 in Championnat National on May 4, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Djougou in Djougou.