Panthères 0–0 Cavaliers: Result & Stats

Panthères

FT

0 – 0

Cavaliers

10/26/2024

Championnat National · Group A - 5Stade Djougou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Panthères42%

×Draw31%

Cavaliers27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PanthèresExpected goals in this matchCavaliers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

0.83

Panthères

1.10

Cavaliers

0.83

Panthères creates 33% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 107 away

1.07

creates per match

0.86

0.80

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Panthères

1.07

Cavaliers

0.86

allows per match

Panthères

0.80

Cavaliers

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Panthères+0.00on par

Cavaliers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panthères ↓

Cavaliers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Panthères or draw

73%

Panthères or Cavaliers

69%

Draw or Cavaliers

58%

Winning margin

Panthères wins by 2+

17%

Cavaliers wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Panthères 1+ goals

67%

Panthères 2+ goals

30%

Panthères 3+ goals

10%

Cavaliers 1+ goals

56%

Cavaliers 2+ goals

20%

Cavaliers 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Panthères (draw refunded)

60%

Cavaliers (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panthères at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.80 · 86 matches

Cavaliers away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.13 · 107 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panthères attack 1.07 + Cavaliers defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.10

Cavaliers attack 0.86 + Panthères defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Panthères scores more

42%

level

31%

Cavaliers scores more

27%

Panthères at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Panthères will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff