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Panthère vs New Star — Elite One 2019

Panthère
Panthère
FT
1 – 0
New Star
New Star
4/10/2021Elite OneElite One · Round 6Stade Municipal de Bafoussam

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Panthère50%
×Draw27%
New Star23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Panthère
1.39
New Star
0.85

Panthère creates 64% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 37 away

creates per match

Panthère
1.23
New Star
0.62

allows per match

Panthère
1.08
New Star
1.54

finishing

Panthère+0.00on par
New Star+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panthère ↓

New Star →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Panthère or draw
77%
Panthère or New Star
73%
Draw or New Star
50%

Winning margin

Panthère wins by 2+
24%
New Star wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Panthère 1+ goals
75%
Panthère 2+ goals
40%
Panthère 3+ goals
16%
New Star 1+ goals
57%
New Star 2+ goals
21%
New Star 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Panthère (draw refunded)
68%
New Star (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panthère at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.08 · 64 matches

New Star away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.54 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panthère attack 1.23 + New Star defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.39

New Star attack 0.62 + Panthère defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Panthère scores more
50%
level
27%
New Star scores more
23%

Panthère at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Panthère will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Panthère 1–0 New Star

Panthère beat New Star 1-0 in Elite One on April 10, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Bafoussam in Bafoussam.