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Panthère vs Fortuna Mfou — Elite One 2019

Panthère
Panthère
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Fortuna Mfou
Fortuna Mfou
4/6/2025Elite OneElite One · Round 18Stade Municipal Fotso Victor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Panthère42%
×Draw28%
Fortuna Mfou31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Panthère
1.31
Fortuna Mfou
1.08

Panthère creates 21% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 96 away

creates per match

Panthère
1.23
Fortuna Mfou
1.09

allows per match

Panthère
1.08
Fortuna Mfou
1.39

finishing

Panthère+0.00on par
Fortuna Mfou+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panthère ↓

Fortuna Mfou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Panthère or draw
69%
Panthère or Fortuna Mfou
72%
Draw or Fortuna Mfou
58%

Winning margin

Panthère wins by 2+
19%
Fortuna Mfou wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Panthère 1+ goals
73%
Panthère 2+ goals
38%
Panthère 3+ goals
14%
Fortuna Mfou 1+ goals
66%
Fortuna Mfou 2+ goals
29%
Fortuna Mfou 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Panthère (draw refunded)
58%
Fortuna Mfou (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panthère at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.08 · 64 matches

Fortuna Mfou away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.39 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panthère attack 1.23 + Fortuna Mfou defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.31

Fortuna Mfou attack 1.09 + Panthère defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Panthère scores more
42%
level
28%
Fortuna Mfou scores more
31%

Panthère at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Panthère will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Panthère vs Fortuna Mfou

Panthère beat Fortuna Mfou 2-0 in Elite One on April 6, 2025.

The match was played at Stade Municipal Fotso Victor in Bandjoun.