Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Panthère vs Fauve Azur Elite — Elite One 2019

Panthère
Panthère
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Fauve Azur Elite
Fauve Azur Elite
12/15/2024Elite OneElite One · Round 2Stade Municipal de Bafoussam

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Panthère43%
×Draw30%
Fauve Azur Elite27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Panthère
1.15
Fauve Azur Elite
0.84

Panthère creates 37% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 15 away

creates per match

Panthère
1.23
Fauve Azur Elite
0.60

allows per match

Panthère
1.08
Fauve Azur Elite
1.07

finishing

Panthère+0.00on par
Fauve Azur Elite+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panthère ↓

Fauve Azur Elite →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Panthère or draw
73%
Panthère or Fauve Azur Elite
70%
Draw or Fauve Azur Elite
57%

Winning margin

Panthère wins by 2+
18%
Fauve Azur Elite wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Panthère 1+ goals
68%
Panthère 2+ goals
32%
Panthère 3+ goals
11%
Fauve Azur Elite 1+ goals
57%
Fauve Azur Elite 2+ goals
21%
Fauve Azur Elite 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Panthère (draw refunded)
62%
Fauve Azur Elite (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panthère at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.08 · 64 matches

Fauve Azur Elite away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panthère attack 1.23 + Fauve Azur Elite defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.15

Fauve Azur Elite attack 0.60 + Panthère defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Panthère scores more
43%
level
30%
Fauve Azur Elite scores more
27%

Panthère at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Panthère will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: Panthère 0–2 Fauve Azur Elite

Fauve Azur Elite beat Panthère 2-0 in Elite One on December 15, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Municipal de Bafoussam in Bafoussam.