Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Panthère vs FAP — Elite Two 2020

Panthère
Panthère
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
FAP
FAP
1/6/2024Elite TwoElite Two · Round 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Panthère40%
×Draw28%
FAP32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Panthère
1.27
FAP
1.11

Panthère creates 14% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 50 away

creates per match

Panthère
1.10
FAP
1.32

allows per match

Panthère
0.90
FAP
1.44

finishing

Panthère+0.00on par
FAP+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panthère ↓

FAP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Panthère or draw
68%
Panthère or FAP
72%
Draw or FAP
60%

Winning margin

Panthère wins by 2+
18%
FAP wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Panthère 1+ goals
72%
Panthère 2+ goals
36%
Panthère 3+ goals
14%
FAP 1+ goals
67%
FAP 2+ goals
30%
FAP 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Panthère (draw refunded)
55%
FAP (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panthère at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

FAP away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.44 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panthère attack 1.10 + FAP defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.27

FAP attack 1.32 + Panthère defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Panthère scores more
40%
level
28%
FAP scores more
32%

Panthère at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Panthère will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite Two: Panthère 2–2 FAP

Panthère and FAP drew 2-2 in Elite Two on January 6, 2024.