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Panthère vs APEJES Academy — Elite One 2019

Panthère
Panthère
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
APEJES Academy
APEJES Academy
6/23/2022Elite OneElite One · Round 29Stade Olembe Annexe A

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Panthère40%
×Draw28%
APEJES Academy31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Panthère
1.23
APEJES Academy
1.04

Panthère creates 18% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 67 away

creates per match

Panthère
1.23
APEJES Academy
1.01

allows per match

Panthère
1.08
APEJES Academy
1.24

finishing

Panthère+0.00on par
APEJES Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panthère ↓

APEJES Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Panthère or draw
69%
Panthère or APEJES Academy
72%
Draw or APEJES Academy
60%

Winning margin

Panthère wins by 2+
18%
APEJES Academy wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Panthère 1+ goals
71%
Panthère 2+ goals
35%
Panthère 3+ goals
13%
APEJES Academy 1+ goals
65%
APEJES Academy 2+ goals
28%
APEJES Academy 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Panthère (draw refunded)
57%
APEJES Academy (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panthère at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.08 · 64 matches

APEJES Academy away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.24 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panthère attack 1.23 + APEJES Academy defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.23

APEJES Academy attack 1.01 + Panthère defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Panthère scores more
40%
level
28%
APEJES Academy scores more
31%

Panthère at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Panthère will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Panthère vs APEJES Academy

Panthère beat APEJES Academy 3-2 in Elite One on June 23, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Olembe Annexe A in Yaoundé.