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Panserraikos vs PAS Giannina — Super League 1 2018

Panserraikos
Panserraikos
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
PAS Giannina
PAS Giannina
9/28/2023Super League 1Super League 1 · Round 6Dimotiko Stadio Serron

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Panserraikos41%
×Draw27%
PAS Giannina32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Panserraikos
1.36
PAS Giannina
1.18

Panserraikos creates 15% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 83 away

creates per match

Panserraikos
1.13
PAS Giannina
0.88

allows per match

Panserraikos
1.47
PAS Giannina
1.59

finishing

Panserraikos+0.00on par
PAS Giannina+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panserraikos ↓

PAS Giannina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Panserraikos or draw
68%
Panserraikos or PAS Giannina
73%
Draw or PAS Giannina
59%

Winning margin

Panserraikos wins by 2+
19%
PAS Giannina wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Panserraikos 1+ goals
74%
Panserraikos 2+ goals
39%
Panserraikos 3+ goals
16%
PAS Giannina 1+ goals
69%
PAS Giannina 2+ goals
33%
PAS Giannina 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Panserraikos (draw refunded)
56%
PAS Giannina (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panserraikos at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.47 · 53 matches

PAS Giannina away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.59 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panserraikos attack 1.13 + PAS Giannina defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.36

PAS Giannina attack 0.88 + Panserraikos defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Panserraikos scores more
41%
level
27%
PAS Giannina scores more
32%

Panserraikos at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Panserraikos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League 1: Panserraikos 3–2 PAS Giannina

Panserraikos beat PAS Giannina 3-2 in Super League 1 on September 28, 2023.

The match was played at Dimotiko Stadio Serron in Serres.