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Panserraikos vs Aris Thessalonikis — Super League 1 2018

Panserraikos
Panserraikos
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Aris Thessalonikis
Aris Thessalonikis
8/24/2024Super League 1Super League 1 · Round 2Dimotiko Stadio Serron

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Panserraikos33%
×Draw27%
Aris Thessalonikis39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Panserraikos
1.15
Aris Thessalonikis
1.28

Aris Thessalonikis creates 11% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 137 away

creates per match

Panserraikos
1.13
Aris Thessalonikis
1.09

allows per match

Panserraikos
1.47
Aris Thessalonikis
1.18

finishing

Panserraikos+0.00on par
Aris Thessalonikis+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panserraikos ↓

Aris Thessalonikis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Panserraikos or draw
61%
Panserraikos or Aris Thessalonikis
73%
Draw or Aris Thessalonikis
67%

Winning margin

Panserraikos wins by 2+
14%
Aris Thessalonikis wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Panserraikos 1+ goals
68%
Panserraikos 2+ goals
32%
Panserraikos 3+ goals
11%
Aris Thessalonikis 1+ goals
72%
Aris Thessalonikis 2+ goals
37%
Aris Thessalonikis 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Panserraikos (draw refunded)
46%
Aris Thessalonikis (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panserraikos at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.47 · 53 matches

Aris Thessalonikis away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.18 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panserraikos attack 1.13 + Aris Thessalonikis defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.15

Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.09 + Panserraikos defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Panserraikos scores more
33%
level
27%
Aris Thessalonikis scores more
39%

Aris Thessalonikis at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Aris Thessalonikis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Panserraikos vs Aris Thessalonikis

Aris Thessalonikis beat Panserraikos 1-0 in Super League 1 on August 24, 2024.

The match was played at Dimotiko Stadio Serron in Serres.