Panserraikos 0–4 AEK Athens FC: Result & Stats

Panserraikos

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 0

AEK Athens FC

B. Varga 90', 55'

M. Grujic 90'

R. Marin 89' (pen)

2/8/2026

Super League 1 · Round 20Dimotiko Stadio Serron

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Panserraikos27%

×Draw26%

AEK Athens FC47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PanserraikosExpected goals in this matchAEK Athens FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.50

Panserraikos

1.06

AEK Athens FC

1.50

AEK Athens FC creates 42% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 137 away

1.13

creates per match

1.53

1.47

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Panserraikos

1.13

AEK Athens FC

1.53

allows per match

Panserraikos

1.47

AEK Athens FC

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Panserraikos+0.00on par

AEK Athens FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panserraikos ↓

AEK Athens FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–29%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Panserraikos or draw

53%

Panserraikos or AEK Athens FC

74%

Draw or AEK Athens FC

73%

Winning margin

Panserraikos wins by 2+

10%

AEK Athens FC wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Panserraikos 1+ goals

65%

Panserraikos 2+ goals

29%

Panserraikos 3+ goals

9%

AEK Athens FC 1+ goals

78%

AEK Athens FC 2+ goals

44%

AEK Athens FC 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Panserraikos (draw refunded)

36%

AEK Athens FC (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panserraikos at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.47 · 53 matches

AEK Athens FC away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.00 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panserraikos attack 1.13 + AEK Athens FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

AEK Athens FC attack 1.53 + Panserraikos defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Panserraikos scores more

27%

level

26%

AEK Athens FC scores more

47%

AEK Athens FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "AEK Athens FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

R. Marin

AEK Athens FC · M

9.5

Match Events

27'

Volnei Feltes

29'

James Penrice

46'

S. Pilios← J. Penrice

52'

Orbelín Pineda

54'

P. Mantalos← O. Pineda

55'

B. Varga↳ R. Marin

61'

Igor Kalinin

63'

Răzvan Marin

64'

S. Ben Sallam← A. Maskanakis

64'

D. Bile← A. Riera

69'

N. Karelis← I. Gelashvili

70'

M. Gacinovic← Zini

70'

Joao Mario← N. Eliasson

80'

Samir Ben Sallam

86'

M. Sofianos← G. Doiranlis

87'

Aboubakary KoitaPenalty confirmed

88'

Volnei Feltes

88'

Volnei Feltes

89'

R. MarinPenalty

90+1'

M. Grujic← A. Koita

90'

M. Grujic↳ R. Marin

90'

B. Varga↳ Joao Mario

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PanserraikosAEK

Overview

20%Possession80%

2Total Shots20

0.34Expected Goals (xG)3.67

0Corners9

11Fouls11

Shots

2Total Shots20

1On Target6

1Off Target9

0Blocked5

0Inside Box17

2Outside Box3

Passing

20%Possession80%

153Total Passes608

99Accurate Passes563

65%Pass Accuracy93%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

0.17Goals Prevented0.17

Discipline

11Fouls11

4Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

1Offsides1