Panjsher 1–1 Ravshan: Result & Stats

Panjsher

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Ravshan

Unknown 3'

A. Khaitov 47'

8/11/2024

Vysshaya Liga · Round 13Stadion Pakhtakor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Panjsher26%

×Draw24%

Ravshan50%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PanjsherExpected goals in this matchRavshan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.75

Panjsher

1.21

Ravshan

1.75

Ravshan creates 45% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 34 away

1.06

creates per match

1.32

2.18

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Panjsher

1.06

Ravshan

1.32

allows per match

Panjsher

2.18

Ravshan

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Panjsher+0.00on par

Ravshan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panjsher ↓

Ravshan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Panjsher or draw

50%

Panjsher or Ravshan

76%

Draw or Ravshan

74%

Winning margin

Panjsher wins by 2+

11%

Ravshan wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Panjsher 1+ goals

70%

Panjsher 2+ goals

34%

Panjsher 3+ goals

12%

Ravshan 1+ goals

83%

Ravshan 2+ goals

52%

Ravshan 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Panjsher (draw refunded)

35%

Ravshan (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panjsher at home — creates 1.06, concedes 2.18 · 33 matches

Ravshan away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panjsher attack 1.06 + Ravshan defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.21

Ravshan attack 1.32 + Panjsher defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Panjsher scores more

26%

level

24%

Ravshan scores more

50%

Ravshan at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ravshan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

47'

A. Khaitov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff