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Panjsher vs Khosilot Farkhor — Vysshaya Liga 2025

Panjsher
Panjsher
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Khosilot Farkhor
Khosilot Farkhor
A. Mael 43'
S. Song 10'
11/10/2025Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 22Stadion Central'nyj im. Uktama Mamatova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Panjsher26%
×Draw23%
Khosilot Farkhor50%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Panjsher
1.24
Khosilot Farkhor
1.80

Khosilot Farkhor creates 45% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 27 away

creates per match

Panjsher
0.96
Khosilot Farkhor
1.44

allows per match

Panjsher
2.16
Khosilot Farkhor
1.52

finishing

Panjsher+0.00on par
Khosilot Farkhor+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panjsher ↓

Khosilot Farkhor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Panjsher or draw
50%
Panjsher or Khosilot Farkhor
77%
Draw or Khosilot Farkhor
74%

Winning margin

Panjsher wins by 2+
11%
Khosilot Farkhor wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Panjsher 1+ goals
71%
Panjsher 2+ goals
35%
Panjsher 3+ goals
13%
Khosilot Farkhor 1+ goals
83%
Khosilot Farkhor 2+ goals
54%
Khosilot Farkhor 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Panjsher (draw refunded)
34%
Khosilot Farkhor (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panjsher at home — creates 0.96, concedes 2.16 · 25 matches

Khosilot Farkhor away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.52 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panjsher attack 0.96 + Khosilot Farkhor defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.24

Khosilot Farkhor attack 1.44 + Panjsher defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Panjsher scores more
26%
level
23%
Khosilot Farkhor scores more
50%

Khosilot Farkhor at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Khosilot Farkhor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'
S. Song
43'
A. Mael

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Panjsher 1 – 1 Khosilot Farkhor

Panjsher and Khosilot Farkhor drew 1-1 in Vysshaya Liga on November 10, 2025.

Goals: S. Song (10'), A. Mael (43').

The match was played at Stadion Central'nyj im. Uktama Mamatova in Kolkhozabad.