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Panjsher vs Istiqlol — Vysshaya Liga 2025

Panjsher
Panjsher
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Istiqlol
Istiqlol
A. Kamolov 36'
C. Bonney 31' (OG)
M. Dzhalilov 19' (pen)
6/26/2024Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 9Republican Central Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Panjsher12%
×Draw19%
Istiqlol69%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Panjsher
0.78
Istiqlol
2.16

Istiqlol creates 177% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 30 away

creates per match

Panjsher
0.96
Istiqlol
2.10

allows per match

Panjsher
2.22
Istiqlol
0.60

finishing

Panjsher+0.00on par
Istiqlol+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panjsher ↓

Istiqlol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–111%
0–212%
0–39%
0–45%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–13%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Panjsher or draw
31%
Panjsher or Istiqlol
81%
Draw or Istiqlol
88%

Winning margin

Panjsher wins by 2+
4%
Istiqlol wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

Panjsher 1+ goals
54%
Panjsher 2+ goals
18%
Panjsher 3+ goals
4%
Istiqlol 1+ goals
88%
Istiqlol 2+ goals
63%
Istiqlol 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Panjsher (draw refunded)
15%
Istiqlol (draw refunded)
85%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panjsher at home — creates 0.96, concedes 2.22 · 23 matches

Istiqlol away — creates 2.10, concedes 0.60 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panjsher attack 0.96 + Istiqlol defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.78

Istiqlol attack 2.10 + Panjsher defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 2.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Panjsher scores more
12%
level
19%
Istiqlol scores more
69%

Istiqlol at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Istiqlol will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
M. DzhalilovPenalty
31'
C. BonneyOwn goal
36'
A. Kamolov

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vysshaya Liga: Panjsher 0–3 Istiqlol

Istiqlol beat Panjsher 3-0 in Vysshaya Liga on June 26, 2024.

Goals: M. Dzhalilov (19' pen), C. Bonney (31' o.g.), A. Kamolov (36').

The match was played at Republican Central Stadium in Dushanbe.