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Panjsher vs Istaravshan — Vysshaya Liga 2025

Panjsher
Panjsher
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Istaravshan
Istaravshan
Unknown 86'
Unknown 59', 45+6', 24' (pen)
4/19/2024Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 3Stadion Central'nyj im. Uktama Mamatova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Panjsher35%
×Draw24%
Istaravshan41%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Panjsher
1.42
Istaravshan
1.56

Istaravshan creates 10% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 43 away

creates per match

Panjsher
1.09
Istaravshan
0.88

allows per match

Panjsher
2.25
Istaravshan
1.74

finishing

Panjsher+0.00on par
Istaravshan+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panjsher ↓

Istaravshan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Panjsher or draw
59%
Panjsher or Istaravshan
76%
Draw or Istaravshan
65%

Winning margin

Panjsher wins by 2+
16%
Istaravshan wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Panjsher 1+ goals
76%
Panjsher 2+ goals
41%
Panjsher 3+ goals
17%
Istaravshan 1+ goals
79%
Istaravshan 2+ goals
46%
Istaravshan 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Panjsher (draw refunded)
46%
Istaravshan (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panjsher at home — creates 1.09, concedes 2.25 · 32 matches

Istaravshan away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.74 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panjsher attack 1.09 + Istaravshan defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.42

Istaravshan attack 0.88 + Panjsher defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Panjsher scores more
35%
level
24%
Istaravshan scores more
41%

Istaravshan at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Istaravshan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
Penalty
45+6'
56'
59'
86'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Vysshaya Liga: Panjsher 1–3 Istaravshan

Istaravshan beat Panjsher 3-1 in Vysshaya Liga on April 19, 2024.

Goals: ? (24' pen, 45+6', 59', 86').

The match was played at Stadion Central'nyj im. Uktama Mamatova in Kolkhozabad.