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Panevėžys vs FK Zalgiris Vilnius — A Lyga 2026

Panevėžys
Panevėžys
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
5/3/2026A LygaA Lyga · Round 11Aukstaitijos Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

Panevėžys30%
×Draw26%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Panevėžys
1.15
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.46

FK Zalgiris Vilnius creates 27% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 127 away

creates per match

Panevėžys
1.44
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1.87

allows per match

Panevėžys
1.04
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
0.86

finishing

Panevėžys+0.00on par
FK Zalgiris Vilnius+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panevėžys ↓

FK Zalgiris Vilnius →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Panevėžys or draw
56%
Panevėžys or FK Zalgiris Vilnius
74%
Draw or FK Zalgiris Vilnius
70%

Winning margin

Panevėžys wins by 2+
12%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Panevėžys 1+ goals
68%
Panevėžys 2+ goals
32%
Panevėžys 3+ goals
11%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1+ goals
77%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2+ goals
43%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Panevėžys (draw refunded)
40%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panevėžys at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.04 · 127 matches

FK Zalgiris Vilnius away — creates 1.87, concedes 0.86 · 127 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panevėžys attack 1.44 + FK Zalgiris Vilnius defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.15

FK Zalgiris Vilnius attack 1.87 + Panevėžys defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Panevėžys scores more
30%
level
26%
FK Zalgiris Vilnius scores more
44%

FK Zalgiris Vilnius at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FK Zalgiris Vilnius will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

A Lyga: Panevėžys 2–1 FK Zalgiris Vilnius

Panevėžys beat FK Zalgiris Vilnius 2-1 in A Lyga on May 3, 2026.

The match was played at Aukstaitijos Stadium.