Panevėžys II 0–2 Tauras: Result & Stats | 1 Lyga

Panevėžys II

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Tauras

N. Totilas 90'

Jorge Eduardo 13'

7/22/2025

1 Lyga · Round 16Panevėžio futbolo akademijos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Panevėžys II28%

×Draw24%

Tauras49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Panevėžys IIExpected goals in this matchTauras

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.75

Panevėžys II

1.27

Tauras

1.75

Tauras creates 38% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 38 away

1.47

creates per match

1.50

2.01

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Panevėžys II

1.47

Tauras

1.50

allows per match

Panevėžys II

2.01

Tauras

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Panevėžys II+0.00on par

Tauras+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panevėžys II ↓

Tauras →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Panevėžys II or draw

51%

Panevėžys II or Tauras

76%

Draw or Tauras

72%

Winning margin

Panevėžys II wins by 2+

12%

Tauras wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Panevėžys II 1+ goals

72%

Panevėžys II 2+ goals

36%

Panevėžys II 3+ goals

14%

Tauras 1+ goals

83%

Tauras 2+ goals

52%

Tauras 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Panevėžys II (draw refunded)

36%

Tauras (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panevėžys II at home — creates 1.47, concedes 2.01 · 85 matches

Tauras away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.08 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panevėžys II attack 1.47 + Tauras defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.27

Tauras attack 1.50 + Panevėžys II defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Panevėžys II scores more

28%

level

24%

Tauras scores more

49%

Tauras at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Tauras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

P. Trijonis← M. Statkus

13'

Jorge Eduardo

18'

M. Pusnys← A. Slobodian

37'

D. Druktenis

57'

S. Dosse← D. Nwosu

57'

V. Kondrotas← R. Gramba

58'

A. Jusys← A. Butkus

78'

A. Baidoo← Jorge Eduardo

78'

N. Totilas← D. Nwegbo

82'

L. Laimikis← R. Lazdinauskas

88'

S. Dosse

90+2'

E. Dzinga

90'

N. Totilas

Panevėžys

Tauras

1

Macaitis

4

▼

Statkus

5

Druktenis

7

⚽

▼

8

9

13

18

▼

Nwosu

35

▼

Gramba

44

▼

94

12

10

11

▼

16

23

25

29

30

▼

Slobodian

31

▼

Butkus

32

Rasimavic

66

Balsys

18'▲M. Pusnys←▼A. Slobodian

58'▲A. Jusys←▼A. Butkus

82'▲L. Laimikis←▼R. Lazdinauskas

Panevėžys II substitutes

13Bukel2Gleveckas9Jusys21Pusnys22Enoch77Laimikis

Manager: D. Gvildys

9'▲P. Trijonis←▼M. Statkus

57'▲S. Dosse←▼D. Nwosu

57'▲V. Kondrotas←▼R. Gramba

78'▲A. Baidoo←▼Jorge Eduardo

78'▲N. Totilas←▼D. Nwegbo

Tauras substitutes

51Lankauskas6Traore10Baidoo11Dosse14Galbuogis16Paulius19Totilas50Kondrotas77Sirka88Trijonis

Match Recap: Panevėžys II vs Tauras

Tauras beat Panevėžys II 2-0 in 1 Lyga on July 22, 2025.

Goals: Jorge Eduardo (13'), N. Totilas (90').

The match was played at Panevėžio futbolo akademijos stadionas in Panevėžys.

Panevėžys II vs Tauras — 1 Lyga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Panevėžys II vs Tauras