Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Panevėžys II vs Nevėžis — 1 Lyga 2026

Panevėžys II
Panevėžys II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Nevėžis
Nevėžis
N. Luksys 75'
Y. Mohil 62'
8/17/20241 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 19Žemynos progimnazijos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Panevėžys II30%
×Draw23%
Nevėžis47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Panevėžys II
1.38
Nevėžis
1.79

Nevėžis creates 30% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 83 away

creates per match

Panevėžys II
1.47
Nevėžis
1.57

allows per match

Panevėžys II
2.01
Nevėžis
1.28

finishing

Panevėžys II+0.00on par
Nevėžis+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panevėžys II ↓

Nevėžis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Panevėžys II or draw
53%
Panevėžys II or Nevėžis
77%
Draw or Nevėžis
70%

Winning margin

Panevėžys II wins by 2+
13%
Nevėžis wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Panevėžys II 1+ goals
75%
Panevėžys II 2+ goals
40%
Panevėžys II 3+ goals
16%
Nevėžis 1+ goals
83%
Nevėžis 2+ goals
53%
Nevėžis 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Panevėžys II (draw refunded)
39%
Nevėžis (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panevėžys II at home — creates 1.47, concedes 2.01 · 85 matches

Nevėžis away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.28 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panevėžys II attack 1.47 + Nevėžis defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.38

Nevėžis attack 1.57 + Panevėžys II defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Panevėžys II scores more
30%
level
23%
Nevėžis scores more
47%

Nevėžis at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Nevėžis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'
M. Beneta← D. Balsys
51'
E. Dzinga
57'
M. Malatokas← M. Malatokas
62'
Y. Mohil
64'
A. Spontas← A. Spontas
70'
A. Trakselis
75'
N. Luksys
76'
E. Dzinga← E. Puikis
77'
N. Gavrylyuk← E. Onah
78'
N. Bosancic
83'
84'
T. Horikoshi← T. Horikoshi
84'
D. Bukel
90'
D. Vaicekauskas
90+4'
R. Mikuckis

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: Panevėžys II 1–1 Nevėžis

Panevėžys II and Nevėžis drew 1-1 in 1 Lyga on August 17, 2024.

Goals: Y. Mohil (62'), N. Luksys (75').

The match was played at Žemynos progimnazijos stadionas in Panevėžys.