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Panevėžys II vs Nevėžis — 1 Lyga 2026

Panevėžys II
Panevėžys II
FT
1 – 1
Nevėžis
Nevėžis
10/25/20201 Lyga1 Lyga · Promotion Round - 6Žemynos progimnazijos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Panevėžys II29%
×Draw23%
Nevėžis48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Panevėžys II
1.42
Nevėžis
1.88

Nevėžis creates 32% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 89 away

creates per match

Panevėžys II
1.47
Nevėžis
1.74

allows per match

Panevėžys II
2.01
Nevėžis
1.38

finishing

Panevėžys II+0.00on par
Nevėžis+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panevėžys II ↓

Nevėžis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Panevėžys II or draw
52%
Panevėžys II or Nevėžis
77%
Draw or Nevėžis
71%

Winning margin

Panevėžys II wins by 2+
13%
Nevėžis wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Panevėžys II 1+ goals
76%
Panevėžys II 2+ goals
41%
Panevėžys II 3+ goals
17%
Nevėžis 1+ goals
85%
Nevėžis 2+ goals
56%
Nevėžis 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Panevėžys II (draw refunded)
38%
Nevėžis (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panevėžys II at home — creates 1.47, concedes 2.01 · 85 matches

Nevėžis away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.38 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panevėžys II attack 1.47 + Nevėžis defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.42

Nevėžis attack 1.74 + Panevėžys II defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Panevėžys II scores more
29%
level
23%
Nevėžis scores more
48%

Nevėžis at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Nevėžis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: Panevėžys II 1–1 Nevėžis

Panevėžys II and Nevėžis drew 1-1 in 1 Lyga on October 25, 2020.

The match was played at Žemynos progimnazijos stadionas in Panevėžys.