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Panevėžys II vs Jonava — 1 Lyga 2026

Panevėžys II
Panevėžys II
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Jonava
Jonava
N. Luksys 77'
K. Asamoah 66', 36'
R. Misiunas 23'
B. Rassoul 11'
9/17/20231 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 22Žemynos progimnazijos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Panevėžys II33%
×Draw24%
Jonava43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Panevėžys II
1.45
Jonava
1.67

Jonava creates 15% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 74 away

creates per match

Panevėžys II
1.47
Jonava
1.32

allows per match

Panevėžys II
2.01
Jonava
1.43

finishing

Panevėžys II+0.00on par
Jonava+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panevėžys II ↓

Jonava →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Panevėžys II or draw
57%
Panevėžys II or Jonava
76%
Draw or Jonava
67%

Winning margin

Panevėžys II wins by 2+
15%
Jonava wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Panevėžys II 1+ goals
77%
Panevėžys II 2+ goals
42%
Panevėžys II 3+ goals
18%
Jonava 1+ goals
81%
Jonava 2+ goals
50%
Jonava 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Panevėžys II (draw refunded)
44%
Jonava (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panevėžys II at home — creates 1.47, concedes 2.01 · 85 matches

Jonava away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.43 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panevėžys II attack 1.47 + Jonava defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.45

Jonava attack 1.32 + Panevėžys II defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Panevėžys II scores more
33%
level
24%
Jonava scores more
43%

Jonava at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Jonava will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
B. Rassoul
23'
R. Misiunas
36'
K. Asamoah
42'
M. Matuzas
42'
M. Matuzas
66'
K. Asamoah
77'
N. Luksys

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: Panevėžys II 4–1 Jonava

Panevėžys II beat Jonava 4-1 in 1 Lyga on September 17, 2023.

Goals: B. Rassoul (11'), R. Misiunas (23'), K. Asamoah (36', 66'), N. Luksys (77').

The match was played at Žemynos progimnazijos stadionas in Panevėžys.