Panevėžys II 2–4 Džiugas Telšiai: Result & Stats

Panevėžys II

FT

2 – 4

Džiugas Telšiai

10/4/2020

1 Lyga · Promotion Round - 4Žemynos progimnazijos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Panevėžys II25%

×Draw23%

Džiugas Telšiai52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Panevėžys IIExpected goals in this matchDžiugas Telšiai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.88

Panevėžys II

1.23

Džiugas Telšiai

1.88

Džiugas Telšiai creates 53% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 24 away

1.47

creates per match

1.75

2.01

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Panevėžys II

1.47

Džiugas Telšiai

1.75

allows per match

Panevėžys II

2.01

Džiugas Telšiai

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Panevėžys II+0.00on par

Džiugas Telšiai+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panevėžys II ↓

Džiugas Telšiai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Panevėžys II or draw

48%

Panevėžys II or Džiugas Telšiai

77%

Draw or Džiugas Telšiai

75%

Winning margin

Panevėžys II wins by 2+

10%

Džiugas Telšiai wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Panevėžys II 1+ goals

71%

Panevėžys II 2+ goals

35%

Panevėžys II 3+ goals

13%

Džiugas Telšiai 1+ goals

85%

Džiugas Telšiai 2+ goals

56%

Džiugas Telšiai 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Panevėžys II (draw refunded)

32%

Džiugas Telšiai (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panevėžys II at home — creates 1.47, concedes 2.01 · 85 matches

Džiugas Telšiai away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.00 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panevėžys II attack 1.47 + Džiugas Telšiai defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.23

Džiugas Telšiai attack 1.75 + Panevėžys II defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Panevėžys II scores more

25%

level

23%

Džiugas Telšiai scores more

52%

Džiugas Telšiai at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Džiugas Telšiai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff