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Panevėžys II vs Be1 NFA — 1 Lyga 2026

Panevėžys II
Panevėžys II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Be1 NFA
Be1 NFA
11/7/20221 Lyga1 Lyga · Round 29Žemynos progimnazijos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Panevėžys II28%
×Draw24%
Be1 NFA48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Panevėžys II
1.25
Be1 NFA
1.69

Be1 NFA creates 35% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 68 away

creates per match

Panevėžys II
1.47
Be1 NFA
1.38

allows per match

Panevėžys II
2.01
Be1 NFA
1.04

finishing

Panevėžys II+0.00on par
Be1 NFA+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panevėžys II ↓

Be1 NFA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Panevėžys II or draw
52%
Panevėžys II or Be1 NFA
76%
Draw or Be1 NFA
72%

Winning margin

Panevėžys II wins by 2+
12%
Be1 NFA wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Panevėžys II 1+ goals
71%
Panevėžys II 2+ goals
36%
Panevėžys II 3+ goals
13%
Be1 NFA 1+ goals
82%
Be1 NFA 2+ goals
50%
Be1 NFA 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Panevėžys II (draw refunded)
37%
Be1 NFA (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panevėžys II at home — creates 1.47, concedes 2.01 · 85 matches

Be1 NFA away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.04 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panevėžys II attack 1.47 + Be1 NFA defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.25

Be1 NFA attack 1.38 + Panevėžys II defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Panevėžys II scores more
28%
level
24%
Be1 NFA scores more
48%

Be1 NFA at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Be1 NFA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1 Lyga: Panevėžys II 0–2 Be1 NFA

Be1 NFA beat Panevėžys II 2-0 in 1 Lyga on November 7, 2022.

The match was played at Žemynos progimnazijos stadionas in Panevėžys.