Be1 NFA vs Panevėžys II — 1 Lyga 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 66+ matches
Be1 NFA53%
Panevėžys II25%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Be1 NFA creates 54% more chances
Season form · 66 home / 81 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over62
- Under38
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes62
- No38
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Be1 NFA ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Be1 NFA at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.06 · 66 matches
Panevėžys II away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.19 · 81 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Be1 NFA attack 1.71 + Panevėžys II defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.95
Panevėžys II attack 1.47 + Be1 NFA defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.27
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 53%?"
Be1 NFA at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 53% does not mean "Be1 NFA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Be1 NFA substitutes
Head to Head
Džiugas Telšiai
Banga
Vilniaus Vytis
Dainava
Nevėžis
Šiauliai
Hegelmann Litauen
Minija
Jonava
Kupiškis
BFA
Trakai II
Žalgiris II
Atmosfera
Pakruojis
Stumbras IIIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Be1 NFA host Panevėžys II on Friday, 24 October 2025 at 15:00. The match is part of the 1 Lyga 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Be1 NFA vs Panevėžys II
Be1 NFA beat Panevėžys II 4-1 in 1 Lyga on October 24, 2025.
Goals: K. Bekwayo (27'), O. Wardell (42', 49'), U. W. Akpan (47'), A. Slobodian (51').
The match was played at Jonavos centrinis stadionas in Jonava.