Panevėžys II 2–0 Banga II: Result & Stats | 1 Lyga

Panevėžys II

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Banga II

9/16/2024

1 Lyga · Round 22Panevėžio futbolo akademijos stadionas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Panevėžys II45%

×Draw23%

Banga II32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Panevėžys IIExpected goals in this matchBanga II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.48

Panevėžys II

1.79

Banga II

1.48

Panevėžys II creates 21% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 43 away

1.47

creates per match

0.95

2.01

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

Panevėžys II

1.47

Banga II

0.95

allows per match

Panevėžys II

2.01

Banga II

2.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Panevėžys II+0.00on par

Banga II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panevėžys II ↓

Banga II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Panevėžys II or draw

68%

Panevėžys II or Banga II

77%

Draw or Banga II

55%

Winning margin

Panevėžys II wins by 2+

24%

Banga II wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Panevėžys II 1+ goals

83%

Panevėžys II 2+ goals

53%

Panevėžys II 3+ goals

26%

Banga II 1+ goals

77%

Banga II 2+ goals

43%

Banga II 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Panevėžys II (draw refunded)

58%

Banga II (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panevėžys II at home — creates 1.47, concedes 2.01 · 85 matches

Banga II away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.12 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panevėžys II attack 1.47 + Banga II defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.79

Banga II attack 0.95 + Panevėžys II defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Panevėžys II scores more

45%

level

23%

Banga II scores more

32%

Panevėžys II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Panevėžys II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff