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Panetolikos vs Panathinaikos — Super League 1 2018

Panetolikos
Panetolikos
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Panathinaikos
Panathinaikos
9/28/2025Super League 1Super League 1 · Round 5Panetolikos Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 134+ matches

Panetolikos30%
×Draw29%
Panathinaikos41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Panetolikos
1.00
Panathinaikos
1.23

Panathinaikos creates 23% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 137 away

creates per match

Panetolikos
0.99
Panathinaikos
1.17

allows per match

Panetolikos
1.29
Panathinaikos
1.01

finishing

Panetolikos+0.00on par
Panathinaikos+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panetolikos ↓

Panathinaikos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Panetolikos or draw
59%
Panetolikos or Panathinaikos
71%
Draw or Panathinaikos
70%

Winning margin

Panetolikos wins by 2+
11%
Panathinaikos wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Panetolikos 1+ goals
63%
Panetolikos 2+ goals
26%
Panetolikos 3+ goals
8%
Panathinaikos 1+ goals
71%
Panathinaikos 2+ goals
35%
Panathinaikos 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Panetolikos (draw refunded)
42%
Panathinaikos (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panetolikos at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.29 · 134 matches

Panathinaikos away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.01 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panetolikos attack 0.99 + Panathinaikos defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.00

Panathinaikos attack 1.17 + Panetolikos defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Panetolikos scores more
30%
level
29%
Panathinaikos scores more
41%

Panathinaikos at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Panathinaikos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Panetolikos vs Panathinaikos

Panathinaikos beat Panetolikos 2-1 in Super League 1 on September 28, 2025.

The match was played at Panetolikos Stadium in Agrinio.