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Panetolikos vs OFI — Super League 1 2018

Panetolikos
Panetolikos
FT
4 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
OFI
OFI
10/18/2025Super League 1Super League 1 · Round 7Panetolikos Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

Panetolikos41%
×Draw27%
OFI32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Panetolikos
1.32
OFI
1.15

Panetolikos creates 15% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 130 away

creates per match

Panetolikos
0.99
OFI
1.01

allows per match

Panetolikos
1.29
OFI
1.65

finishing

Panetolikos+0.00on par
OFI+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panetolikos ↓

OFI →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Panetolikos or draw
68%
Panetolikos or OFI
73%
Draw or OFI
59%

Winning margin

Panetolikos wins by 2+
18%
OFI wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Panetolikos 1+ goals
73%
Panetolikos 2+ goals
38%
Panetolikos 3+ goals
15%
OFI 1+ goals
68%
OFI 2+ goals
32%
OFI 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Panetolikos (draw refunded)
56%
OFI (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panetolikos at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.29 · 134 matches

OFI away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.65 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panetolikos attack 0.99 + OFI defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.32

OFI attack 1.01 + Panetolikos defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Panetolikos scores more
41%
level
27%
OFI scores more
32%

Panetolikos at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Panetolikos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Panetolikos vs OFI

Panetolikos beat OFI 4-2 in Super League 1 on October 18, 2025.

The match was played at Panetolikos Stadium in Agrinio.