Panetolikos 1–2 Lamia: Result & Stats

Panetolikos

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Lamia

1/27/2024

Super League 1 · Round 20Stadio Panetolikou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Panetolikos43%

×Draw28%

Lamia29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PanetolikosExpected goals in this matchLamia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.99

Panetolikos

1.27

Lamia

0.99

Panetolikos creates 28% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 119 away

0.99

creates per match

0.70

1.29

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Panetolikos

0.99

Lamia

0.70

allows per match

Panetolikos

1.29

Lamia

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Panetolikos+0.00on par

Lamia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panetolikos ↓

Lamia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Panetolikos or draw

71%

Panetolikos or Lamia

72%

Draw or Lamia

57%

Winning margin

Panetolikos wins by 2+

19%

Lamia wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Panetolikos 1+ goals

72%

Panetolikos 2+ goals

36%

Panetolikos 3+ goals

14%

Lamia 1+ goals

63%

Lamia 2+ goals

26%

Lamia 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Panetolikos (draw refunded)

60%

Lamia (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panetolikos at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.29 · 134 matches

Lamia away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.54 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panetolikos attack 0.99 + Lamia defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.27

Lamia attack 0.70 + Panetolikos defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Panetolikos scores more

43%

level

28%

Lamia scores more

29%

Panetolikos at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Panetolikos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff