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Panetolikos vs Kifisia — Super League 1 2018

Panetolikos
Panetolikos
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Kifisia
Kifisia
5/2/2026Super League 1Super League 1 · Relegation Group - 6Panetolikos Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Panetolikos43%
×Draw26%
Kifisia30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Panetolikos
1.43
Kifisia
1.15

Panetolikos creates 24% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 35 away

creates per match

Panetolikos
0.99
Kifisia
1.00

allows per match

Panetolikos
1.29
Kifisia
1.86

finishing

Panetolikos+0.00on par
Kifisia+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panetolikos ↓

Kifisia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Panetolikos or draw
70%
Panetolikos or Kifisia
74%
Draw or Kifisia
57%

Winning margin

Panetolikos wins by 2+
21%
Kifisia wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Panetolikos 1+ goals
76%
Panetolikos 2+ goals
42%
Panetolikos 3+ goals
17%
Kifisia 1+ goals
68%
Kifisia 2+ goals
32%
Kifisia 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Panetolikos (draw refunded)
59%
Kifisia (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panetolikos at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.29 · 134 matches

Kifisia away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.86 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panetolikos attack 0.99 + Kifisia defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.43

Kifisia attack 1.00 + Panetolikos defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Panetolikos scores more
43%
level
26%
Kifisia scores more
30%

Panetolikos at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Panetolikos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Panetolikos vs Kifisia

Kifisia beat Panetolikos 1-0 in Super League 1 on May 2, 2026.

The match was played at Panetolikos Stadium in Agrinio.