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Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis — Super League 1 2018

Panetolikos
Panetolikos
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Asteras Tripolis
Asteras Tripolis
11/5/2023Super League 1Super League 1 · Round 10Stadio Panetolikou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 131+ matches

Panetolikos39%
×Draw29%
Asteras Tripolis33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Panetolikos
1.18
Asteras Tripolis
1.06

Panetolikos creates 11% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 131 away

creates per match

Panetolikos
0.99
Asteras Tripolis
0.84

allows per match

Panetolikos
1.29
Asteras Tripolis
1.36

finishing

Panetolikos+0.00on par
Asteras Tripolis+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panetolikos ↓

Asteras Tripolis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Panetolikos or draw
67%
Panetolikos or Asteras Tripolis
71%
Draw or Asteras Tripolis
61%

Winning margin

Panetolikos wins by 2+
16%
Asteras Tripolis wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Panetolikos 1+ goals
69%
Panetolikos 2+ goals
33%
Panetolikos 3+ goals
12%
Asteras Tripolis 1+ goals
65%
Asteras Tripolis 2+ goals
29%
Asteras Tripolis 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Panetolikos (draw refunded)
54%
Asteras Tripolis (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panetolikos at home — creates 0.99, concedes 1.29 · 134 matches

Asteras Tripolis away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.36 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panetolikos attack 0.99 + Asteras Tripolis defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.18

Asteras Tripolis attack 0.84 + Panetolikos defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Panetolikos scores more
39%
level
29%
Asteras Tripolis scores more
33%

Panetolikos at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Panetolikos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Panetolikos vs Asteras Tripolis

Asteras Tripolis beat Panetolikos 1-0 in Super League 1 on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Panetolikou in Agrinio.