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Asteras Tripolis vs Panetolikos — Super League 1 2018

Asteras Tripolis
Asteras Tripolis
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Panetolikos
Panetolikos
11/22/2025Super League 1Super League 1 · Round 11Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 135+ matches

Asteras Tripolis45%
×Draw28%
Panetolikos28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Asteras Tripolis
1.34
Panetolikos
0.99

Asteras Tripolis creates 35% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 135 away

creates per match

Asteras Tripolis
1.20
Panetolikos
0.87

allows per match

Asteras Tripolis
1.10
Panetolikos
1.49

finishing

Asteras Tripolis+0.00on par
Panetolikos+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Asteras Tripolis ↓

Panetolikos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Asteras Tripolis or draw
72%
Asteras Tripolis or Panetolikos
72%
Draw or Panetolikos
55%

Winning margin

Asteras Tripolis wins by 2+
21%
Panetolikos wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Asteras Tripolis 1+ goals
74%
Asteras Tripolis 2+ goals
39%
Asteras Tripolis 3+ goals
15%
Panetolikos 1+ goals
63%
Panetolikos 2+ goals
26%
Panetolikos 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Asteras Tripolis (draw refunded)
62%
Panetolikos (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Asteras Tripolis at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.10 · 135 matches

Panetolikos away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.49 · 135 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Asteras Tripolis attack 1.20 + Panetolikos defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.34

Panetolikos attack 0.87 + Asteras Tripolis defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Asteras Tripolis scores more
45%
level
28%
Panetolikos scores more
28%

Asteras Tripolis at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Asteras Tripolis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League 1: Asteras Tripolis 1–1 Panetolikos

Asteras Tripolis and Panetolikos drew 1-1 in Super League 1 on November 22, 2025.

The match was played at Theodoros Kolokotronis Stadium in Tripoli.