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Pandurii TG JIU vs Sportul Snagov — Liga II 2018

Pandurii TG JIU
Pandurii TG JIU
CANC
08:00
Sportul Snagov
Sportul Snagov
4/25/2020Liga IILiga II · Round 32

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Pandurii TG JIU38%
×Draw25%
Sportul Snagov37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pandurii TG JIU
1.45
Sportul Snagov
1.41

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 30 away

creates per match

Pandurii TG JIU
1.12
Sportul Snagov
1.10

allows per match

Pandurii TG JIU
1.72
Sportul Snagov
1.77

finishing

Pandurii TG JIU+0.00on par
Sportul Snagov+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pandurii TG JIU ↓

Sportul Snagov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Pandurii TG JIU or draw
63%
Pandurii TG JIU or Sportul Snagov
75%
Draw or Sportul Snagov
62%

Winning margin

Pandurii TG JIU wins by 2+
18%
Sportul Snagov wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Pandurii TG JIU 1+ goals
77%
Pandurii TG JIU 2+ goals
42%
Pandurii TG JIU 3+ goals
18%
Sportul Snagov 1+ goals
76%
Sportul Snagov 2+ goals
41%
Sportul Snagov 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Pandurii TG JIU (draw refunded)
51%
Sportul Snagov (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pandurii TG JIU at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.72 · 43 matches

Sportul Snagov away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.77 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pandurii TG JIU attack 1.12 + Sportul Snagov defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.45

Sportul Snagov attack 1.10 + Pandurii TG JIU defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Pandurii TG JIU scores more
38%
level
25%
Sportul Snagov scores more
37%

Pandurii TG JIU at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Pandurii TG JIU will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Pandurii TG JIU host Sportul Snagov

April 25, 2020: Pandurii TG JIU take on Sportul Snagov in Liga II. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.