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Pandurii TG JIU vs Juventus Bucuresti — Liga II 2018

Pandurii TG JIU
Pandurii TG JIU
CANC
00:00
Juventus Bucuresti
Juventus Bucuresti
11/13/2019Liga IILiga II · Round 17Stadionul Municipal Târgu Jiu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Pandurii TG JIU35%
×Draw26%
Juventus Bucuresti39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pandurii TG JIU
1.33
Juventus Bucuresti
1.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 19 away

creates per match

Pandurii TG JIU
1.12
Juventus Bucuresti
1.11

allows per match

Pandurii TG JIU
1.72
Juventus Bucuresti
1.53

finishing

Pandurii TG JIU+0.00on par
Juventus Bucuresti+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pandurii TG JIU ↓

Juventus Bucuresti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Pandurii TG JIU or draw
61%
Pandurii TG JIU or Juventus Bucuresti
74%
Draw or Juventus Bucuresti
65%

Winning margin

Pandurii TG JIU wins by 2+
16%
Juventus Bucuresti wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Pandurii TG JIU 1+ goals
74%
Pandurii TG JIU 2+ goals
38%
Pandurii TG JIU 3+ goals
15%
Juventus Bucuresti 1+ goals
76%
Juventus Bucuresti 2+ goals
41%
Juventus Bucuresti 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Pandurii TG JIU (draw refunded)
47%
Juventus Bucuresti (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pandurii TG JIU at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.72 · 43 matches

Juventus Bucuresti away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.53 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pandurii TG JIU attack 1.12 + Juventus Bucuresti defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.33

Juventus Bucuresti attack 1.11 + Pandurii TG JIU defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Pandurii TG JIU scores more
35%
level
26%
Juventus Bucuresti scores more
39%

Juventus Bucuresti at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Juventus Bucuresti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Pandurii TG JIU host Juventus Bucuresti

November 13, 2019: Pandurii TG JIU take on Juventus Bucuresti in Liga II. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Pandurii TG JIU host Juventus Bucuresti at Stadionul Municipal Târgu Jiu.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.