Pandurii TG JIU vs Farul Constanta

Pandurii TG JIU

CANC

15:00

Farul Constanta

5/13/2020

Liga II · Round 35

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Pandurii TG JIU35%

×Draw26%

Farul Constanta38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pandurii TG JIUExpected goals in this matchFarul Constanta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.34

Pandurii TG JIU

1.27

Farul Constanta

1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 43 home / 45 away

1.12

creates per match

0.96

1.72

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Pandurii TG JIU

1.12

Farul Constanta

0.96

allows per match

Pandurii TG JIU

1.72

Farul Constanta

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pandurii TG JIU+0.00on par

Farul Constanta+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pandurii TG JIU ↓

Farul Constanta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Pandurii TG JIU or draw

62%

Pandurii TG JIU or Farul Constanta

74%

Draw or Farul Constanta

65%

Winning margin

Pandurii TG JIU wins by 2+

15%

Farul Constanta wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Pandurii TG JIU 1+ goals

72%

Pandurii TG JIU 2+ goals

36%

Pandurii TG JIU 3+ goals

14%

Farul Constanta 1+ goals

74%

Farul Constanta 2+ goals

39%

Farul Constanta 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Pandurii TG JIU (draw refunded)

48%

Farul Constanta (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pandurii TG JIU at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.72 · 43 matches

Farul Constanta away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.42 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pandurii TG JIU attack 1.12 + Farul Constanta defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.27

Farul Constanta attack 0.96 + Pandurii TG JIU defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Pandurii TG JIU scores more

35%

level

26%

Farul Constanta scores more

38%

Farul Constanta at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Farul Constanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff