Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Pandurii TG JIU vs Chindia Targoviste — Liga II 2018

Pandurii TG JIU
Pandurii TG JIU
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Chindia Targoviste
Chindia Targoviste
5/14/2019Liga IILiga II · Round 35Stadionul Municipal Tudor Vladimirescu - Teren II (Sintetic) (Târgu Jiu)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Pandurii TG JIU28%
×Draw26%
Chindia Targoviste46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pandurii TG JIU
1.08
Chindia Targoviste
1.48

Chindia Targoviste creates 37% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 60 away

creates per match

Pandurii TG JIU
1.12
Chindia Targoviste
1.25

allows per match

Pandurii TG JIU
1.72
Chindia Targoviste
1.05

finishing

Pandurii TG JIU+0.00on par
Chindia Targoviste+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pandurii TG JIU ↓

Chindia Targoviste →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Pandurii TG JIU or draw
54%
Pandurii TG JIU or Chindia Targoviste
74%
Draw or Chindia Targoviste
72%

Winning margin

Pandurii TG JIU wins by 2+
11%
Chindia Targoviste wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Pandurii TG JIU 1+ goals
66%
Pandurii TG JIU 2+ goals
29%
Pandurii TG JIU 3+ goals
10%
Chindia Targoviste 1+ goals
77%
Chindia Targoviste 2+ goals
43%
Chindia Targoviste 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Pandurii TG JIU (draw refunded)
37%
Chindia Targoviste (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pandurii TG JIU at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.72 · 43 matches

Chindia Targoviste away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.05 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pandurii TG JIU attack 1.12 + Chindia Targoviste defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.08

Chindia Targoviste attack 1.25 + Pandurii TG JIU defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Pandurii TG JIU scores more
28%
level
26%
Chindia Targoviste scores more
46%

Chindia Targoviste at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Chindia Targoviste will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pandurii TG JIU vs Chindia Targoviste

Chindia Targoviste beat Pandurii TG JIU 2-0 in Liga II on May 14, 2019.

The match was played at Stadionul Municipal Tudor Vladimirescu - Teren II (Sintetic) (Târgu Jiu).