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Panda B5 vs Tshinkunku — Ligue 1 2019

Panda B5
Panda B5
FT
1 – 2
Tshinkunku
Tshinkunku
11/5/2022Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 5Stade de Kikula

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Panda B540%
×Draw28%
Tshinkunku32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Panda B5
1.26
Tshinkunku
1.08

Panda B5 creates 17% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 57 away

creates per match

Panda B5
0.85
Tshinkunku
0.79

allows per match

Panda B5
1.38
Tshinkunku
1.67

finishing

Panda B5+0.00on par
Tshinkunku+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panda B5 ↓

Tshinkunku →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Panda B5 or draw
68%
Panda B5 or Tshinkunku
72%
Draw or Tshinkunku
60%

Winning margin

Panda B5 wins by 2+
18%
Tshinkunku wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Panda B5 1+ goals
72%
Panda B5 2+ goals
36%
Panda B5 3+ goals
13%
Tshinkunku 1+ goals
66%
Tshinkunku 2+ goals
29%
Tshinkunku 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Panda B5 (draw refunded)
56%
Tshinkunku (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panda B5 at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.38 · 52 matches

Tshinkunku away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.67 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panda B5 attack 0.85 + Tshinkunku defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.26

Tshinkunku attack 0.79 + Panda B5 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Panda B5 scores more
40%
level
28%
Tshinkunku scores more
32%

Panda B5 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Panda B5 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Panda B5 vs Tshinkunku

Tshinkunku beat Panda B5 2-1 in Ligue 1 on November 5, 2022.

The match was played at Stade de Kikula in Likasi.