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Panda B5 vs Simba — Ligue 1 2019

Panda B5
Panda B5
FT
0 – 2
Simba
Simba
5/17/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Relegation Round - 5Stade Frédéric Kibassa Maliba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Panda B534%
×Draw29%
Simba37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Panda B5
1.05
Simba
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 89 away

creates per match

Panda B5
0.85
Simba
0.84

allows per match

Panda B5
1.38
Simba
1.25

finishing

Panda B5+0.00on par
Simba+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panda B5 ↓

Simba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Panda B5 or draw
63%
Panda B5 or Simba
71%
Draw or Simba
66%

Winning margin

Panda B5 wins by 2+
13%
Simba wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Panda B5 1+ goals
65%
Panda B5 2+ goals
28%
Panda B5 3+ goals
9%
Simba 1+ goals
67%
Simba 2+ goals
30%
Simba 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Panda B5 (draw refunded)
48%
Simba (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panda B5 at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.38 · 52 matches

Simba away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.25 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panda B5 attack 0.85 + Simba defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.05

Simba attack 0.84 + Panda B5 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Panda B5 scores more
34%
level
29%
Simba scores more
37%

Simba at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Simba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Panda B5 vs Simba

Simba beat Panda B5 2-0 in Ligue 1 on May 17, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Frédéric Kibassa Maliba in Lubumbashi.