Panda B5 3–0 Kuya Sport: Result & Stats | Ligue 1

Panda B5

FT

3 – 0

Kuya Sport

6/4/2022

Ligue 1 · Round 17Stade de Kikula

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Panda B540%

×Draw28%

Kuya Sport31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Panda B5Expected goals in this matchKuya Sport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.04

Panda B5

1.23

Kuya Sport

1.04

Panda B5 creates 18% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 35 away

0.85

creates per match

0.71

1.38

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Panda B5

0.85

Kuya Sport

0.71

allows per match

Panda B5

1.38

Kuya Sport

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Panda B5+0.00on par

Kuya Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panda B5 ↓

Kuya Sport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Panda B5 or draw

69%

Panda B5 or Kuya Sport

72%

Draw or Kuya Sport

60%

Winning margin

Panda B5 wins by 2+

18%

Kuya Sport wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Panda B5 1+ goals

71%

Panda B5 2+ goals

35%

Panda B5 3+ goals

13%

Kuya Sport 1+ goals

65%

Kuya Sport 2+ goals

28%

Kuya Sport 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Panda B5 (draw refunded)

57%

Kuya Sport (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panda B5 at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.38 · 52 matches

Kuya Sport away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.60 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panda B5 attack 0.85 + Kuya Sport defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.23

Kuya Sport attack 0.71 + Panda B5 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Panda B5 scores more

40%

level

28%

Kuya Sport scores more

31%

Panda B5 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Panda B5 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff