Panazol 3–2 Angers SCO II: Result & Stats

Panazol

FT

3 – 2

Angers SCO II

5/16/2026

League #462 · Group B - 26Stade de Morpiènas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Panazol29%

×Draw22%

Angers SCO II49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PanazolExpected goals in this matchAngers SCO II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

2.00

Panazol

1.50

Angers SCO II

2.00

Angers SCO II creates 33% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

2.00

creates per match

2.33

1.67

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Panazol

2.00

Angers SCO II

2.33

allows per match

Panazol

1.67

Angers SCO II

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Panazol+0.00on par

Angers SCO II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panazol ↓

Angers SCO II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Panazol or draw

51%

Panazol or Angers SCO II

78%

Draw or Angers SCO II

71%

Winning margin

Panazol wins by 2+

13%

Angers SCO II wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Panazol 1+ goals

78%

Panazol 2+ goals

44%

Panazol 3+ goals

19%

Angers SCO II 1+ goals

86%

Angers SCO II 2+ goals

59%

Angers SCO II 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Panazol (draw refunded)

37%

Angers SCO II (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panazol at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Angers SCO II away — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panazol attack 2.00 + Angers SCO II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Angers SCO II attack 2.33 + Panazol defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Panazol scores more

29%

level

22%

Angers SCO II scores more

49%

Angers SCO II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Angers SCO II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff