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Panathinaikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus — Super League 1 2018

Panathinaikos
Panathinaikos
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Olympiakos Piraeus
Olympiakos Piraeus
9/21/2025Super League 1Super League 1 · Round 4Apostolos Nikolaidis Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 137+ matches

Panathinaikos35%
×Draw28%
Olympiakos Piraeus37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Panathinaikos
1.19
Olympiakos Piraeus
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 137 home / 137 away

creates per match

Panathinaikos
1.68
Olympiakos Piraeus
1.71

allows per match

Panathinaikos
0.74
Olympiakos Piraeus
0.69

finishing

Panathinaikos+0.00on par
Olympiakos Piraeus+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panathinaikos ↓

Olympiakos Piraeus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Panathinaikos or draw
63%
Panathinaikos or Olympiakos Piraeus
72%
Draw or Olympiakos Piraeus
65%

Winning margin

Panathinaikos wins by 2+
15%
Olympiakos Piraeus wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Panathinaikos 1+ goals
70%
Panathinaikos 2+ goals
33%
Panathinaikos 3+ goals
12%
Olympiakos Piraeus 1+ goals
71%
Olympiakos Piraeus 2+ goals
35%
Olympiakos Piraeus 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Panathinaikos (draw refunded)
49%
Olympiakos Piraeus (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panathinaikos at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.74 · 137 matches

Olympiakos Piraeus away — creates 1.71, concedes 0.69 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panathinaikos attack 1.68 + Olympiakos Piraeus defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.19

Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.71 + Panathinaikos defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Panathinaikos scores more
35%
level
28%
Olympiakos Piraeus scores more
37%

Olympiakos Piraeus at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Olympiakos Piraeus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League 1: Panathinaikos 1–1 Olympiakos Piraeus

Panathinaikos and Olympiakos Piraeus drew 1-1 in Super League 1 on September 21, 2025.

The match was played at Apostolos Nikolaidis Stadium in Athens.