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Panathinaikos vs Lamia — Super League 1 2018

Panathinaikos
Panathinaikos
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Lamia
Lamia
4/14/2024Super League 1Super League 1 · Championship Round - 5Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Panathinaikos59%
×Draw25%
Lamia17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Panathinaikos
1.61
Lamia
0.72

Panathinaikos creates 124% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 119 away

creates per match

Panathinaikos
1.68
Lamia
0.70

allows per match

Panathinaikos
0.74
Lamia
1.54

finishing

Panathinaikos+0.00on par
Lamia+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panathinaikos ↓

Lamia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Panathinaikos or draw
83%
Panathinaikos or Lamia
75%
Draw or Lamia
41%

Winning margin

Panathinaikos wins by 2+
32%
Lamia wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Panathinaikos 1+ goals
80%
Panathinaikos 2+ goals
48%
Panathinaikos 3+ goals
22%
Lamia 1+ goals
51%
Lamia 2+ goals
16%
Lamia 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Panathinaikos (draw refunded)
78%
Lamia (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panathinaikos at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.74 · 137 matches

Lamia away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.54 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panathinaikos attack 1.68 + Lamia defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.61

Lamia attack 0.70 + Panathinaikos defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Panathinaikos scores more
59%
level
25%
Lamia scores more
17%

Panathinaikos at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Panathinaikos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Panathinaikos vs Lamia

Panathinaikos beat Lamia 3-1 in Super League 1 on April 14, 2024.

The match was played at Stadio Apóstolos Nikolaidis in Athens.