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Panathinaikos vs Kifisia — Super League 1 2018

Panathinaikos
Panathinaikos
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kifisia
Kifisia
2/1/2026Super League 1Super League 1 · Round 19Apostolos Nikolaidis Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Panathinaikos59%
×Draw23%
Kifisia18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Panathinaikos
1.77
Kifisia
0.87

Panathinaikos creates 103% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 35 away

creates per match

Panathinaikos
1.68
Kifisia
1.00

allows per match

Panathinaikos
0.74
Kifisia
1.86

finishing

Panathinaikos+0.00on par
Kifisia+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panathinaikos ↓

Kifisia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Panathinaikos or draw
82%
Panathinaikos or Kifisia
77%
Draw or Kifisia
41%

Winning margin

Panathinaikos wins by 2+
33%
Kifisia wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Panathinaikos 1+ goals
83%
Panathinaikos 2+ goals
53%
Panathinaikos 3+ goals
26%
Kifisia 1+ goals
58%
Kifisia 2+ goals
22%
Kifisia 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Panathinaikos (draw refunded)
76%
Kifisia (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panathinaikos at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.74 · 137 matches

Kifisia away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.86 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panathinaikos attack 1.68 + Kifisia defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.77

Kifisia attack 1.00 + Panathinaikos defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Panathinaikos scores more
59%
level
23%
Kifisia scores more
18%

Panathinaikos at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Panathinaikos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Panathinaikos vs Kifisia

Panathinaikos beat Kifisia 3-0 in Super League 1 on February 1, 2026.

The match was played at Apostolos Nikolaidis Stadium in Athens.