Hard 0–0 Kitzbühel: Result & Stats

Hard

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Kitzbühel

9/19/2015

Regionalliga - West · Round 9Waldstadion Hard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hard27%

×Draw29%

Kitzbühel44%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HardExpected goals in this matchKitzbühel

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.91

1.23

Hard

0.91

Kitzbühel

1.23

Kitzbühel creates 35% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 29 away

0.33

creates per match

1.45

1.00

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Hard

0.33

Kitzbühel

1.45

allows per match

Hard

1.00

Kitzbühel

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hard+0.00on par

Kitzbühel+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hard ↓

Kitzbühel →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Hard or draw

56%

Hard or Kitzbühel

71%

Draw or Kitzbühel

73%

Winning margin

Hard wins by 2+

9%

Kitzbühel wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Hard 1+ goals

60%

Hard 2+ goals

23%

Hard 3+ goals

6%

Kitzbühel 1+ goals

71%

Kitzbühel 2+ goals

35%

Kitzbühel 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Hard (draw refunded)

39%

Kitzbühel (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hard at home — creates 0.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Kitzbühel away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.48 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hard attack 0.33 + Kitzbühel defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 0.91

Kitzbühel attack 1.45 + Hard defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hard scores more

27%

level

29%

Kitzbühel scores more

44%

Kitzbühel at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kitzbühel will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.