Big Bullets 3–0 Mzuni: Result & Stats

Big Bullets

FT

3 – 0

Mzuni

4/3/2021

Super League · Round 8Kamuzu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Big Bullets69%

×Draw19%

Mzuni12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Big BulletsExpected goals in this matchMzuni

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

0.71

Big Bullets

2.08

Mzuni

0.71

Big Bullets creates 193% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 19 away

2.33

creates per match

0.68

0.74

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Big Bullets

2.33

Mzuni

0.68

allows per match

Big Bullets

0.74

Mzuni

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Big Bullets+0.00on par

Mzuni+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Big Bullets ↓

Mzuni →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Big Bullets or draw

88%

Big Bullets or Mzuni

81%

Draw or Mzuni

31%

Winning margin

Big Bullets wins by 2+

44%

Mzuni wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Big Bullets 1+ goals

87%

Big Bullets 2+ goals

61%

Big Bullets 3+ goals

34%

Mzuni 1+ goals

51%

Mzuni 2+ goals

16%

Mzuni 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Big Bullets (draw refunded)

86%

Mzuni (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Big Bullets at home — creates 2.33, concedes 0.74 · 80 matches

Mzuni away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Big Bullets attack 2.33 + Mzuni defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 2.08

Mzuni attack 0.68 + Big Bullets defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Big Bullets scores more

69%

level

19%

Mzuni scores more

12%

Big Bullets at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Big Bullets will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff