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Panama W vs Paraguay W — Friendlies Women 2020

Panama W
Panama W
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Paraguay W
Paraguay W
2/16/2024Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies 2Estadio Universitario F.C.

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Panama W85%
×Draw11%
Paraguay W4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Panama W
2.91
Paraguay W
0.54

Panama W creates 439% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 11 away

creates per match

Panama W
2.18
Paraguay W
0.36

allows per match

Panama W
0.73
Paraguay W
3.64

finishing

Panama W+0.00on par
Paraguay W+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panama W ↓

Paraguay W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–15%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–013%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–15%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Panama W or draw
96%
Panama W or Paraguay W
89%
Draw or Paraguay W
15%

Winning margin

Panama W wins by 2+
65%
Paraguay W wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Panama W 1+ goals
94%
Panama W 2+ goals
78%
Panama W 3+ goals
54%
Paraguay W 1+ goals
42%
Paraguay W 2+ goals
10%
Paraguay W 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Panama W (draw refunded)
95%
Paraguay W (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panama W at home — creates 2.18, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

Paraguay W away — creates 0.36, concedes 3.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panama W attack 2.18 + Paraguay W defence 3.64 → ÷2 → 2.91

Paraguay W attack 0.36 + Panama W defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

Panama W scores more
85%
level
11%
Paraguay W scores more
4%

Panama W at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Panama W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Panama W vs Paraguay W

Panama W beat Paraguay W 2-0 in Friendlies Women on February 16, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Universitario F.C. in Penonomé.