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Panama W vs Dominican Republic W — Friendlies Women 2026

Panama W
Panama W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dominican Republic W
Dominican Republic W
H. Jaen 67'
4/7/2023Friendlies WomenFriendlies Women · Friendlies 2Estadio Rommel Fernández Gutiérrez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Panama W64%
×Draw21%
Dominican Republic W15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Panama W
2.03
Dominican Republic W
0.86

Panama W creates 136% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

creates per match

Panama W
2.18
Dominican Republic W
1.00

allows per match

Panama W
0.73
Dominican Republic W
1.88

finishing

Panama W+0.00on par
Dominican Republic W+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panama W ↓

Dominican Republic W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Panama W or draw
85%
Panama W or Dominican Republic W
79%
Draw or Dominican Republic W
36%

Winning margin

Panama W wins by 2+
40%
Dominican Republic W wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Panama W 1+ goals
87%
Panama W 2+ goals
60%
Panama W 3+ goals
33%
Dominican Republic W 1+ goals
58%
Dominican Republic W 2+ goals
21%
Dominican Republic W 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Panama W (draw refunded)
81%
Dominican Republic W (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panama W at home — creates 2.18, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

Dominican Republic W away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panama W attack 2.18 + Dominican Republic W defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.03

Dominican Republic W attack 1.00 + Panama W defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Panama W scores more
64%
level
21%
Dominican Republic W scores more
15%

Panama W at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Panama W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'
J. Moya← J. Moya
43'
G. Marte
58'
R. Tanner← R. Tanner
58'
H. Jaen← H. Jaen
67'
H. Jaen
71'
O. Gomez
75'
E. M. Cedeno Coba← E. M. Cedeno Coba
75'
N. De Obaldia← N. De Obaldia
79'
87'
C. Acosta← C. Acosta
87'
Y. Peralta← Y. Peralta
88'
C. Acosta
90'
90+3'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Panama W vs Dominican Republic W

Panama W beat Dominican Republic W 1-0 in Friendlies Women on April 7, 2023.

Goals: H. Jaen (67').

The match was played at Estadio Rommel Fernández Gutiérrez in Ciudad de Panamá.