Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Panama vs Mexico — League #536 2026

Panama
Panama
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Mexico
Mexicoadvanced
O. Pineda 67'
J. Quiñones 43'
E. Álvarez 40'
3/22/2024League #536League #536 · Semi-finalsAT&T Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Panama5%
×Draw17%
Mexico77%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Panama
0.34
Mexico
2.00

Mexico creates 488% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Panama
0.00
Mexico
1.67

allows per match

Panama
2.33
Mexico
0.67

finishing

Panama+0.00on par
Mexico+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

75%No
  • No75
  • Yes25

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panama ↓

Mexico →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–119%
0–219%
0–313%
0–46%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–01%
2–11%
2–21%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (19%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Panama or draw
23%
Panama or Mexico
83%
Draw or Mexico
95%

Winning margin

Panama wins by 2+
1%
Mexico wins by 2+
50%

Team goals

Panama 1+ goals
29%
Panama 2+ goals
5%
Panama 3+ goals
1%
Mexico 1+ goals
86%
Mexico 2+ goals
59%
Mexico 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Panama (draw refunded)
6%
Mexico (draw refunded)
94%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panama at home — creates 0.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Mexico away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panama attack 0.00 + Mexico defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.34

Mexico attack 1.67 + Panama defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Panama scores more
5%
level
17%
Mexico scores more
77%

Mexico at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Mexico will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13
G. OchoaMexicoMexico · G
8.2

Match Events

17'
É. Davis← Y. Bárcenas
40'
E. Álvarez↳ L. Chávez
43'
J. Quiñones↳ H. Martín
45'
Julián QuiñonesGoal confirmed
52'
Luis Chávez
59'
H. Lozano← J. Quiñones
59'
O. Pineda← É. Sánchez
59'
É. Aguirre← J. Araujo
67'
O. Pineda↳ C. Montes
68'
C. Martínez← A. Godoy
68'
C. Waterman← I. Díaz
77'
I. Anderson← C. Blackman
77'
L. Romo← E. Álvarez
79'
K. Lenis← J. Córdoba
80'
J. Orozco← J. Vásquez
85'
Adalberto Carrasquilla
90+2'
Cecilio WatermanGoal cancelled

Possession

59%Panama

Shots

18Panama

Pass accuracy

52%Panama

Statistics

PanamaMexico
Overview
59%Possession41%
18Total Shots6
7Corners4
10Fouls11
Shots
18Total Shots6
5On Target6
12Off Target0
1Blocked0
11Inside Box4
7Outside Box2
Passing
59%Possession41%
422Total Passes297
340Accurate Passes220
81%Pass Accuracy74%
Goalkeeping
3Saves5
Discipline
10Fouls11
1Yellow Cards1
2Offsides2

Panama 0 – 3 Mexico

Mexico beat Panama 3-0 in League #536 on March 22, 2024.

Goals: E. Álvarez (40'), J. Quiñones (43'), O. Pineda (67').

Panama controlled possession (59%) and registered 18 shots to 6.

The match was played at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.