Panama 0–2 England: Result & Stats | World Cup

Panama

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

England

H. Kane 67'

J. Bellingham 62'

6/27/2026

World Cup · Group Stage - 3MetLife Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Panama13%

×Draw21%

England66%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PanamaExpected goals in this matchEngland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.73

1.96

Panama

0.73

England

1.96

England creates 168% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

0.33

creates per match

2.25

1.67

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Panama

0.33

England

2.25

allows per match

Panama

1.67

England

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Panama+0.00on par

England+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panama ↓

England →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–113%

0–213%

0–39%

0–44%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–00%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Panama or draw

34%

Panama or England

79%

Draw or England

87%

Winning margin

Panama wins by 2+

4%

England wins by 2+

41%

Team goals

Panama 1+ goals

52%

Panama 2+ goals

17%

Panama 3+ goals

4%

England 1+ goals

86%

England 2+ goals

58%

England 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Panama (draw refunded)

17%

England (draw refunded)

83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panama at home — creates 0.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

England away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panama attack 0.33 + England defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.73

England attack 2.25 + Panama defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Panama scores more

13%

level

21%

England scores more

66%

England at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "England will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Jude Bellingham

England · M

9.2

Match Events

46'

J. Fajardo← T. Rodriguez

53'

J. Fajardo

60'

J. Quansah

62'

J. Bellingham↳ B. Saka

63'

D. Spence← J. Quansah

63'

N. Madueke← B. Saka

67'

H. Kane↳ J. Bellingham

71'

I. Diaz← Y. Barcenas

71'

A. Londono← J. Rodriguez

71'

E. Eze← J. Bellingham

84'

A. Andrade

84'

J. Henderson← E. Anderson

84'

O. Watkins← H. Kane

88'

A. Quintero← C. Harvey

88'

E. Davis← J. Gutierrez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PanamaEngland

Overview

33%Possession67%

12Total Shots17

0.57Expected Goals (xG)1.49

3Corners7

16Fouls13

Shots

12Total Shots17

2On Target6

7Off Target8

3Blocked3

8Inside Box12

4Outside Box5

Passing

33%Possession67%

267Total Passes557

201Accurate Passes493

75%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

0.15Goals Prevented0.15

Discipline

16Fouls13

2Yellow Cards1

4Offsides4