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Nianan vs Djoliba — Première Division 2019

Nianan
Nianan
FT
1 – 1
Djoliba
Djoliba
1/7/2020Première DivisionPremière Division · Round 13Stade Mamadou Diarra H. de Koulikoro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Nianan19%
×Draw28%
Djoliba53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nianan
0.71
Djoliba
1.40

Djoliba creates 97% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 96 away

creates per match

Nianan
0.89
Djoliba
1.39

allows per match

Nianan
1.42
Djoliba
0.53

finishing

Nianan+0.00on par
Djoliba+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nianan ↓

Djoliba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–117%
0–212%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Nianan or draw
47%
Nianan or Djoliba
72%
Draw or Djoliba
81%

Winning margin

Nianan wins by 2+
5%
Djoliba wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Nianan 1+ goals
51%
Nianan 2+ goals
16%
Nianan 3+ goals
4%
Djoliba 1+ goals
75%
Djoliba 2+ goals
41%
Djoliba 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Nianan (draw refunded)
26%
Djoliba (draw refunded)
74%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nianan at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

Djoliba away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.53 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nianan attack 0.89 + Djoliba defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.71

Djoliba attack 1.39 + Nianan defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Nianan scores more
19%
level
28%
Djoliba scores more
53%

Djoliba at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Djoliba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Recap: Nianan vs Djoliba

Nianan and Djoliba drew 1-1 in Première Division on January 7, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Mamadou Diarra H. de Koulikoro in Koulikoro.