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Panama U23 vs Mexico U23 — Tournoi Maurice Revello 2022

Panama U23
Panama U23advanced
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Mexico U23
Mexico U23
6/18/2023Tournoi Maurice RevelloTournoi Maurice Revello · FinalStade Marcel Roustan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Panama U2371%
×Draw16%
Mexico U2313%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Panama U23
2.83
Mexico U23
1.17

Panama U23 creates 142% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Panama U23
2.67
Mexico U23
1.33

allows per match

Panama U23
1.00
Mexico U23
3.00

finishing

Panama U23+0.00on par
Mexico U23+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Panama U23 ↓

Mexico U23 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Panama U23 or draw
87%
Panama U23 or Mexico U23
84%
Draw or Mexico U23
29%

Winning margin

Panama U23 wins by 2+
50%
Mexico U23 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Panama U23 1+ goals
94%
Panama U23 2+ goals
77%
Panama U23 3+ goals
53%
Mexico U23 1+ goals
69%
Mexico U23 2+ goals
33%
Mexico U23 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Panama U23 (draw refunded)
84%
Mexico U23 (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Panama U23 at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Mexico U23 away — creates 1.33, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Panama U23 attack 2.67 + Mexico U23 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.83

Mexico U23 attack 1.33 + Panama U23 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Panama U23 scores more
71%
level
16%
Mexico U23 scores more
13%

Panama U23 at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Panama U23 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tournoi Maurice Revello: Panama U23 4–1 Mexico U23

Panama U23 beat Mexico U23 4-1 in Tournoi Maurice Revello on June 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stade Marcel Roustan in Salon-de-Provence.